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Chaker Aloui

Professor

Faculty Member

كلية إدارة الأعمال
Male Campus, Second Floor, Office S28
publication
Journal Article
2014

Modelling and forecasting value at risk and expected shortfall for GCC stock markets: Do long memory, structural breaks, asymmetry, and fat-tails matter?

This paper addresses the question whether dual long memory (LM), asymmetry and structural breaks in stock market returns matter when forecasting the value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) for short and long trading positions. We answer this question for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets. Empirically, we test the occurrence of structural breaks in the GCC return data using the Inclan and Tiao (1994)’s algorithm and we check the relevance of LM using Shimotsu (2006) procedure before estimating the ARFIMA-FIGARCH and ARFIMA-FIAPARCH models with different innovations’ distributions and computing VaR and ES. Our results show that all the GCC market's volatilities exhibit significant structural breaks matching mainly with the 2008–2009 global financial crises and the Arab spring. Also, they are governed by LM process either in the mean or in the conditional variance which cannot be due to the occurrence of structural breaks. Furthermore, the forecasting ability analysis shows that the FIAPARCH model under skewed Student-t distribution turn out to improve substantially the VaR and the ES forecasts.

Publication Work Type
Original Research Paper
Volume Number
29
Magazine \ Newspaper
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance
Pages
349-380
more of publication
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This paper examines the short term and long term dependencies between stock market returns for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the…

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publications

This paper addresses the question whether dual long memory (LM), asymmetry and structural breaks in stock market returns matter when forecasting the value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES…

2014
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