**Dr. Abdulrahim Arafah. Tel. 467-7037**

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**CE 601: Probability and Statistics for Civil Engineers**

**Course Outline**

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Part I: Background

**1- ****Introduction:**

Descriptive Statistics, Probability Theory, Discrete and Continuous Distributions, Expectations and Functions of random Variables.

**2- ****Common Probabilistic Models.**

Uniform, Exponential, Normal, Log-normal, and Extreme Distributions.

**3- ****Hypothesis Testing**

Tests concerning Means, Tests Concerning Variances.

**4- ****Analysis of Variance**

One-Way and Two-Way Analysis of Variance.

** 5- Monte-Carlo Simulation.**

**6- ****Regression and Correlation**

**7- ****Statistical Modeling and Model Verification**

**8- **** Decision Theory**

**9- ****Theory of Reliability and its Applications**

Definition and Measure of Reliability, Reliability Index, reliability Levels, and System Reliability.

**10- ****Statistical Quality Control**

#### Part II: Applications

**1- Applications in Structural Engineering**

**Material Properties and Structural Behavior**

|Statistics of Basic Strength Parameters, Simulation, Strength Statistics, Types of Failure, Probability of Failure, Reliability Levels, and Strength Reduction Factors.

**Loads and Load Effects**

Design Loads, Statistics of Load Parameters (Dead, Live, Wind and Earthquake Loads), Load models, Extreme Value Analysis, Load Combinations and Load Factors.

**2- Applications in Transportation**

Design of highway flexible pavements, properties of pavement materials, truck loads, reliability levels.

**3- Quality Control and Quality Assurance.**

**4- Specifications and Design Codes.**

**References:**

1- Benjamin, J. and Cornell, C., “Probability, Statistics, and Decision for Civil Engineers”

2- Anderson, Sweeney, and Williams, “ Statistics for Business and Economics”

3- Gary Hart, “Uncertainty Analysis, Loads, and Safety in Structural Engineering”

4- Palle Thoft-Christensen and Michael Baker “ Structural Reliability Theory and Its Applications”

**Papers:**** **

1. Statistics for Concrete and Steel Quality in S.A.

2. Evaluation of Design and Construction Practices in S.A.

3. Reliability-Based Criterion for max. reinforcement Ratio of R.C. Flexural Members.

4. Basic Statistics of Strength Limit States of R.C. Members in S.A.

5. Evaluation of BDW Speed for Structural Design in S.A.

6. Extreme Value Analysis of Structural Loads in S.A.

7. Influence of Non-Standard Curing on Concrete Strength in Arid Areas.

8. Truck and Central mixing Mechanisms in S.A. : A Critical Evaluation.

9. Analysis of The Variability of Predicted Design Equivalent Single Axle Load Application In S.A.

10. Estimation of the Standard Deviation of Traffic in S.A. in S.A. using AASHTO Model.

11. Rational Selection of Factors of Safety in Reliability-Based Design of Flexible Pavement in S.A.